A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
